Paul's Video Blog

The Next Downturn

Posted on September 17th, 2013 by Paul Winkler | 9 Comments

9 Responses

  1. Kent Spaulding says:

    I KNOW you don’t teach this but why wouldn’t I cash in my 10% on the year tomorrow, and then buy back in when things take a dump ie sell high, buy low.

  2. Bill Hill says:

    Is your advise just to stay put? Accept

  3. Paul Winkler says:

    I have a sneaking suspicion this video may have confused a few people. Here are a few subtle points I was trying to make:

    Downturns are unavoidable and unpredictable. It could be one day before the next one or 10 years or more. One major study of professional investment managers shows that 99.4% fail to match market returns. If professionals can’t do it, then it is unlikely that rank-and-file investors will be able to do it either.

    Many older investors avoid stocks altogether, because they believe that they won’t have enough time left to recover from one should the market go down. Most people don’t realize how quickly markets actually do recover from downturns. If one avoids stocks, then one is almost assuredly going to lose to inflation.

    Stock prices are not overpriced by historical standards right now. That doesn’t mean that they can’t go down, but simply means that there is no obvious overpricing. Overpricing is only obvious in hindsight. In some areas the market stocks are selling actually below book values. Yes, stock prices are up and the market has been doing well, but book values are also up significantly. Book value is the value of the assets minus liabilities of the company. In other words, it’s the stuff that the company owns. That “stuff” maybe in the form of land, buildings, machinery, cash in the bank, etc. Some of the increase in stock prices has been due to companies plowing profits back into the company and buying back their own stock.

  4. stan says:

    To be a confident investor you have to have a working knowledge of why you are investing , what you are investing in and how to invest the way Paul Winkler advises.

    You can become a confident investor by watching all of Pauls videos and listing to his coaching radio show , but mainly you have to study his book Above the Maddening Crowd.
    I have studied through his book four times and i always pick up something i missed each time i read it.
    I enjoy seeing the market go up ,but it doesnt bother me anymore when the market goes down for i see it as a buying oppertunity.
    So will have to study the book to stay on track in turbulant times .
    Just get the book.

  5. Mark Davis says:

    Thankfully I am not freaking out right now worrying about that next downturn. Learning about how much gains come from how few trading days has made me realize market timing is impossible. Thanks for the knowledge…..and peace of mind.

  6. Boyd Brown says:

    I appreciate your communications. It helps me to stay on track.
    The world is in a lot of turmoil and it is hard to decide how to best protect ones self against
    a financial disaster.

    Regards
    Boyd

  7. Paul Winkler says:

    Thanks for all the comments everyone. I’ve had some great questions through email on this one as well. (I prefer comments under the video so everyone benefits, but I know some are more shy than others.) Be watching for my follow up video in the near future. I think it will answer even more questions.

  8. Dave Cardillo says:

    Paul,
    Now that we have positions staked in your matrices and in our independent portfolio, we will continue to dollar cost average. Actually, we are currently placing our DCA into your funds only this year, and for the foreseeable future..

  9. Dennis Honeycutt says:

    I have been very pleased with your advice to date. if everything always when well, people would never be able to cope when it rained. You and your team are great at staying on top of the market. no fears.

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